***AKCNS*** Net income, deviation and operating performance comment-EkspresInvest
07/08/2012 08:45:16

Akcansa posted 2Q12 net profit of TL46mn, which was higher than consensus of TL40mn and slightly higher than house forecast of TL42mn. The deviation from the consensus estimate mainly stemmed from slightly better than expected operating margins. Also, lower than expected effective tax rate of 14.7%, which was 24.9% in 1Q12, contributed to the drift in our bottom-line estimate.

Quarter highlights

Akcansa generated TL286mn revenues in 2Q12, up by 10% YoY, thanks to the jump in export sales (+24% YoY), while domestic revenues were up by 5% YoY. The 2Q12 top-line was parallel to both consensus of TL293mn and house forecast of TL292mn.

On the operational front, 2Q12 EBITDA margin of 22.9% was better than both consensus of 20.1% and house estimate of 21.2%. Note that the EBITDA margin was higher YoY basis due to easing fuel costs and improvement in domestic prices. Consequently, Akcansa posted 2Q12 EBITDA of TL66mn, higher than both consensus of TL59mn and roughly in line with house forecast of TL62mn.

Note that net debt rose to TL195mn in 2Q12 from TL155mn in 1Q12 mainly due to dividend payment of TL88.7mn.

Valuation impact and conclusion:

Both 2Q12 operational and bottom-line results were above consensus and slightly higher than house forecast. Therefore, we expect quarterly results to have limited positive impact on stock price. For now, we maintain our MARKET PERFORMER rating for Akcansa shares considering limited upside potential of 10% to our target price.